10-Year Empirical Accuracy Study: Precision, Recall & Asymmetric Upside

To quantify the statistical reliability of the HolyGrail weekly momentum framework, our quantitative research team conducted an exhaustive 10-year empirical study across large-cap US equities (S&P 500 universe).

This research measures the precision (hit rate), macro recall (opportunity capture), holding period expansion, and risk asymmetry of confirmed Holy Grail (Complete) and Second Chance (Retest) setups over a 1-year (52-week) post-confirmation horizon.

Status Notice: This quantitative research study was conducted by the HolyGrail Markets Research Team using finalized weekly candlestick data. HolyGrail provides 100% ad-free stock news and institutional research. Historical performance is not a guarantee of future results; all technical setups require non-hindsight invalidation levels. See Disclaimers.

1. Executive Summary & Core Findings

Across 285 distinct non-overlapping setup cycles identified over 10 years:

• 74.4% Combined Precision (+15% Target): Nearly 3 out of 4 setups achieved a ≥ +15% maximum price expansion at some point within the following 52 weeks.
• 53.7% Precision (+25% Target): More than half of all evaluated setups generated at least a quarter-gain expansion within 12 months.
• Second Chance Superiority: Pullback retest setups demonstrated significant outperformance, hitting a 77.3% precision rate at +15% and maintaining a 68.2% precision rate at +25%.
• Dramatic Asymmetric Payoff: Winning setups delivered an average peak expansion of +53.8%, whereas failed setups stalled at an average peak of +7.8% before triggering invalidation rules.

2. Definitions: Precision vs. Recall in Trading Systems

In statistical evaluation and machine learning, Precision and Recall measure two complementary dimensions of predictive quality:

• Precision (Signal Accuracy / Win Rate): Precision = True PositivesAll Triggered Signals = Setups that reached targetTotal setups triggered

"When Holy Grail tells me to buy, what percentage of the time does the stock actually gain ≥ X%?"

• High Precision Benefit: Minimizes false breakouts, preserves capital, and increases confidence in position sizing.
• Recall (Opportunity Capture / Sensitivity): Recall = True PositivesAll Winning Moves in Market = Winning moves caught by Holy GrailTotal winning moves across all stocks

"Of all the times stocks in the market gained ≥ X%, what percentage did Holy Grail identify at the base?"

• Strategic Trade-Off: Holy Grail is intentionally engineered as a high-precision, selective-recall filter. It ignores turnaround gambles, meme stock spikes, or mid-trend extensions in order to focus exclusively on institutional accumulation bases above a rising 50WMA.

3. Test Methodology & Systematic Rules

To prevent statistical curve-fitting and eliminate lookahead bias, the evaluation adhered to strict systematic standards:

1. Universe & Timeframe: 10 years of weekly historical candlestick data across liquid institutional equities in the S&P 500.
2. Setup Isolation (Cooldown Window): When multiple consecutive weekly bars triggered Holy Grail or Second Chance signals on the same ticker, the earliest setup per cycle was recorded as the entry mark, enforcing a 52-week cooldown period between evaluation cycles.
3. Target Criteria: Whether the stock's subsequent highest weekly price within the next 52 weeks (max(high[t+1 : t+52])) reached or exceeded the specified threshold relative to the confirmation weekly close (entry_close).
4. Standard Indicator Parameters:

• Volume confirmation multiplier: 1.2x 10-week average volume.
• Retest band: 4.0% to 16.0% above the 50WMA.
• Base duration: ≥ 4 weeks of prior consolidation.
• Trend alignment: Weekly close above a rising 50-week moving average and positive Mansfield Relative Strength against the S&P 500.

4. Precision & Recall Distribution Across Profit Milestones

How do accuracy and capture rates shift as target milestones increase? The empirical distribution table below breaks down performance across key expansion hurdles:

5. Why Second Chance Setups Deliver Higher Precision

A critical observation from this study is the structural outperformance of Second Chance setups over initial Complete Breakouts:

• At the +25% milestone, Complete Setups hit 49.3%, while Second Chance setups achieved 68.2% (an +18.9% accuracy premium).
• At the +40% milestone, Second Chance setups hit nearly 50% precision (48.5%), nearly double the rate of standard breakouts (25.1%).

The Structural Mechanism

1. Initial Breakouts Carry Shakeout Risk: When a stock first breaks out from a lengthy multi-month base, short-term profit takers and overhead supply often test the commitment of institutional buyers.
2. Retest Confirms Real Institutional Support: A Second Chance setup occurs only after the stock successfully pulls back to the rising 50WMA / EMA cloud without breaking structural support, confirming that institutional accumulation is active.
3. Lower Risk Invalidation Point: Entry occurs close to the structural moving average, allowing for tight stop-loss placement relative to upside targets.

6. Asymmetric Risk-Reward Profile

One of the defining attributes of a viable trading framework is positive risk asymmetry.

In this 10-year dataset:

• Winning setups averaged a maximum forward run of +53.8% (+82.5% for Second Chance winners).
• Losing setups reached an average peak of only +7.8% before weakening.

7. Notable Historical Case Studies

Below are notable multi-bagger expansions captured by the earliest trigger rule:

8. Practical Takeaways for Investors & Traders

1. Target Realistic Horizons: The 6-to-12 month timeframe allows weekly institutional accumulation cycles to unfold cleanly without intra-day noise.
2. Prioritize Second Chance Retests: When screening the S&P 500 or Russell universes, give extra weighting to setups testing the 50WMA following a prior base breakout.
3. Respect Invalidation Stops: Because failed setups peak near +7.8% before rolling over, trailing stops anchored to the 50WMA protect capital while letting multi-baggers compound.

Explore Setup Scanners & Indicators

• Scan live weekly momentum signals across the S&P 500 in the HolyGrail Scanner.
• Learn the complete 4-pillar rule system in the HolyGrail Guide.
• Read the structural indicator definitions in the 50-Week Moving Average and Mansfield Relative Strength documentation.